Oregon State Team Report from yahoo

Yahoo! Sports
Nov 26, 2:41 am EST
Inside Slant

For two months, the Beavers (8-3 overall, 7-1 in the Pac-10) have insisted they would stick with the idea of “playing one game at a time.”

And finally, it comes down to that—one game.

OSU’s drive to reach the Rose Bowl for the first time in 44 years could be decided in the 112th Civil War, this one at Reser Stadium in Corvallis against Oregon.

That’s could, because if the Beavers win they will be playing Penn State on New Year’s Day in Pasadena, but there’s also a scenario that sends OSU to the Rose Bowl if the Beavers lose to Oregon. That would only happen if USC then lost to UCLA on Dec. 6, leaving the Beavers, Ducks and Trojans all at 7-2 in the Pac-10. They would have all beaten each other, so the tiebreaker becomes results against the fourth-place team, and Oregon is eliminated because it lost to Cal while the other two defeated the Bears, and then the head-to-head tiebreak goes back into effect, and the Beavers beat USC.

OSU could make it simpler, by beating Oregon for a third consecutive year, something the Beavers haven’t done since the early ’70s. But OSU also hasn’t lost a Civil War at home since 1996, so it’s been five straight wins over the Ducks in Corvallis.

None of that seems to carry much weight in this game. It’s Oregon’s explosive offense against the Beavers defense. It’s Oregon’s defensive against … whoever and whatever the Beavers come up with Saturday.

The Beavers could play minus Quizz Rodgers, the league’s leading rusher, and his brother James will be hampered by a sore toe and ailing shoulder. The quarterback position is in doubt, though both Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao say they want to be the starter, and the position shouldn’t be shared.

Is it Moevao’s leadership, or Canfield’s ability? The Beavers may want to keep the Ducks guessing, not that the offense changes much.

Notes, Quotes

Scouting The Offense: What do the Beavers do, go back to the single wing? The Power-T? Top running back Quizz Rodgers is almost certainly out with a shoulder injury. Brother and receiver James Rodgers has a turf toe and a sore shoulder, which may mean diminished use of the fly sweep that was so effective against Arizona when Quizz Rodgers went out. Even the quarterback position is in doubt: is it sore-shoulder Lyle Moevao or Sean Canfield? So many offensive questions, it seems reasonable that OSU coach Mike Riley has tightened down access to practices.

Scouting The Defense: The Oregon spread, with running quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, isn’t exactly what the Beavers faced against Penn State or Utah, but those two defeats should concern the Beavers. Penn State put up 45 points on OSU and Utah scored 31. No other opponent this season has topped the 25 of Arizona State, and that included a last-minute touchdown. The biggest problem: while the Beavers can matchup on the perimeter in speed, it’s the speed of the Oregon play calling that will take away OSU’s ability to make situational substitutions. And there will be fewer opportunities to rotate fresh linemen during a series.

Quote To Note: “I have a sense that he will want to play and he will say whatever it takes to play. But there will be more to it than that.”—OSU coach Mike Riley, on whether injured running back Quizz Rodgers can make a plea to play against Oregon

Strategy And Personnel

THIS WEEK’S GAME: Oregon at Oregon State, Nov. 29—With OSU’s offense hobbled by injuries, the Civil War is likely to come down to whether the Beavers defense can hold the Ducks in check. Incentive should be on the side of the Beavers, in the Rose Bowl with a win, while the Ducks are possibly headed to the Holiday Bowl win or lose. The incentive edge then goes to the Beavers, and that’s usually a leading factor in rivalry games.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

RB Quizz Rodgers—The Pac-10’s leading rusher with an average of 113 yards isn’t likely to play after suffering a shoulder injury against Arizona, but does he somehow talk coaches into letting him give it a try for a play or two? That also puts him at risk of losing the Pac-10 rushing crown, which is decided on game average, not total yards. Even if Rodgers doesn’t play and his average holds, if Cal’s Jahvid Best is able to rush for more than 170 yards against Washington’s woeful defense when the Bears end their season Dec. 6 against the Huskies, Best will be the Pac-10 rushing champion.

LB Keaton Kristick—All that Oregon sideways running to find an opening will be countered by OSU’s speed at end and linebacker. Kristick is among the league leaders in tackles for lost yardage, and it’s both his instinct for when to make his break on a ball carrier and his speed that allow him to make the play. Opportunities will be numerous against Oregon’s spread.

RB Ryan McCants—If it’s not Quizz Rodgers in the backfield, the redshirt freshman becomes the primary ball carrier. The Beavers had a similar situation last season, and backup Matt Sieverson gashed the Ducks for an early touchdown and finished with a career day. Some of the running plays will change, but McCants is a big, powerful back, particular adept on OSU’s stretch play where he angles off a tackle’s block.

WR Sammie Stroughter—With so many of the OSU offensive weapons ailing, the load will fall more on the senior to come up with a big play as he did last week against Arizona. As he did two years ago with a pair of receptions on OSU’s drive to the field goal that beat the Ducks. A perfect way for one of OSU’s all-time greats to say farewell to Reser Stadium would be living up to that nickname given by his teammates of “Big Play Sammie.”

Roster Report:

• The OSU fans say farewell to some fairly significant seniors at Reser Stadium on Saturday.

Offensively, receivers Sammie Stroughter and Shane Morales; up front, tackles Andy Levitre and Tavita Thompson play their final home game, along with left guard Adam Speer. The defensive senior starters are ends Victor Butler and Slade Norris, two of the leading quarterback sackers in OSU history, tackle Pernnell Booth, middle linebacker Bryant Cornell and the entire secondary: corners Brandon Hughes and Keenan Lewis and safeties Al Afalava and Greg Laybourn.

That’s a group that has played integral roles as the Beavers have gone 10-4, 9-4 and currently 8-3 and bidding for the Rose Bowl.